A few random Sunday thoughts on the subject of elections
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Watch for Bush's rating to drop dramatically in October. After surfing through the puzzled blogosphere I'm here to tell you: Bush is peaking. I believe this is exactly what Karl Rove did not want - peaking too early. But here it is. Considering that the target pendilum is swinging from Kerry and to Bush (deservingly so) watch for Dubya's ratings to go down. In reality he's nothing but hype, because if you concentrate on any of his policies, it's nothing but failure. And as any hype, it is only sustainable for so long.
Now to the question of 'why' he's peaking: it's back to the same old thing - Iraq is hitting the fan - and as security situation deteriorates, people rally around the leader. But that won't last. By the way, economy is not feeling real good either. Especially in Ohio I understand.
I also enjoy seeing that now he is known as an 'unbeatable' debater. Perrrrfect. Just what I've been waiting for for the last 4 years. Kerry still has his reputation, but now he's the underdog and Bush is the one who's 'never lost a debate'. Considering that the sad truth is that perception is everything, Bush is in trouble.
Remember, it is very important not to get caught up in the day to day details of the horse-race. This is really more of a marathon, where the guy in front is rarely the winner. Granted, Clinton led and won in 96, but there just isn't any substance to Bush World. It's all a facade. In 96, things were actually getting better. I don't know anybody now who thinks that the country is better off now then four years ago. Even the people who are planning to vote for Bush. In fact to go back to my earlier prediction, I believe that Republicans will have a lower than expected turn-out because they just won't be able to bring themselves to support this Sociopath-in-Charge. I just hope that somebody spits in his face at one of these accidental run ins with actual human beings. I think the news media could run pretty far with that.
Drudge has consistently disappointed me in the last 2 months. He thinks he's in the middle, but how can a man who considers Rush to be his hero be in the middle of anything? By the way, his dislike of O'Reilly says nothing about his political views, but more about the fact that O'Reilly fancied himself to be a competitor of Rush's. But that's a whole other joke.
What concerns me about the Democrats is that Republicans have done a wonderful job of painting them as weak. Not just weak, but feminine. That means that anybody who plays or watches major league sports, or a violent movie, or cares about others can't be a Democrat. So men are out. Months ago I saw an editorial that suggested that a good bumper sticker for Kerry would be 'Real Men Vote For Kerry'. That attitude should have so exploited by the Democrats, but instead... Well, staying away from being negative was a bad bet this year.
I wish I knew more about the way depressed economy affects people. Seems there is a time when people say ' Everyone's for the themselves' and there must be a time when the prevailing attitude is 'We need to help each other'. Then again it could be just the fish rots from its head and Bush with his 'ownership society' is merely projecting this attitude. Of course questions then becomes: is Bush reflecting what already is going on, or is he setting the mood? May be it's that life has gotten so good to so many of us that we no longer think that social programs are an important feature of our life-style.
Another things that make me so mad I laugh - people commenting that Howard Dean should have been the Democratic Nominee - he would have been eaten alive faster then Kerry ever will be.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Watch for Bush's rating to drop dramatically in October. After surfing through the puzzled blogosphere I'm here to tell you: Bush is peaking. I believe this is exactly what Karl Rove did not want - peaking too early. But here it is. Considering that the target pendilum is swinging from Kerry and to Bush (deservingly so) watch for Dubya's ratings to go down. In reality he's nothing but hype, because if you concentrate on any of his policies, it's nothing but failure. And as any hype, it is only sustainable for so long.
Now to the question of 'why' he's peaking: it's back to the same old thing - Iraq is hitting the fan - and as security situation deteriorates, people rally around the leader. But that won't last. By the way, economy is not feeling real good either. Especially in Ohio I understand.
I also enjoy seeing that now he is known as an 'unbeatable' debater. Perrrrfect. Just what I've been waiting for for the last 4 years. Kerry still has his reputation, but now he's the underdog and Bush is the one who's 'never lost a debate'. Considering that the sad truth is that perception is everything, Bush is in trouble.
Remember, it is very important not to get caught up in the day to day details of the horse-race. This is really more of a marathon, where the guy in front is rarely the winner. Granted, Clinton led and won in 96, but there just isn't any substance to Bush World. It's all a facade. In 96, things were actually getting better. I don't know anybody now who thinks that the country is better off now then four years ago. Even the people who are planning to vote for Bush. In fact to go back to my earlier prediction, I believe that Republicans will have a lower than expected turn-out because they just won't be able to bring themselves to support this Sociopath-in-Charge. I just hope that somebody spits in his face at one of these accidental run ins with actual human beings. I think the news media could run pretty far with that.
Drudge has consistently disappointed me in the last 2 months. He thinks he's in the middle, but how can a man who considers Rush to be his hero be in the middle of anything? By the way, his dislike of O'Reilly says nothing about his political views, but more about the fact that O'Reilly fancied himself to be a competitor of Rush's. But that's a whole other joke.
What concerns me about the Democrats is that Republicans have done a wonderful job of painting them as weak. Not just weak, but feminine. That means that anybody who plays or watches major league sports, or a violent movie, or cares about others can't be a Democrat. So men are out. Months ago I saw an editorial that suggested that a good bumper sticker for Kerry would be 'Real Men Vote For Kerry'. That attitude should have so exploited by the Democrats, but instead... Well, staying away from being negative was a bad bet this year.
I wish I knew more about the way depressed economy affects people. Seems there is a time when people say ' Everyone's for the themselves' and there must be a time when the prevailing attitude is 'We need to help each other'. Then again it could be just the fish rots from its head and Bush with his 'ownership society' is merely projecting this attitude. Of course questions then becomes: is Bush reflecting what already is going on, or is he setting the mood? May be it's that life has gotten so good to so many of us that we no longer think that social programs are an important feature of our life-style.
Another things that make me so mad I laugh - people commenting that Howard Dean should have been the Democratic Nominee - he would have been eaten alive faster then Kerry ever will be.
posted by Yuri at 3:12 PM
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